Numerous powers have injected themselves into the aftermath of the Indian-Pakistani standoff over the terrorist attack on Indian security personnel in Kashmir. From the American side, national security advisor John Bolton conferred with his Indian counterpart immediately after the attack and ostensibly sided with Delhi on the occasion. Similar tunes came from Mike Pompeo, adding to the belligerent noise that was directed toward Pakistan.
And Donald Trump, to the irritation of Indian officials and pretty much the rest of the world, used his press conference in Hanoi to very colloquially describe the conflict between India and Pakistan as one that had been going on for decades and decades and to almost boast about US meditation by saying that America had been in the middle of it, trying to help both parties out. Interesting that Trump took a strictly neutral position and did not assign any blame. Maybe he was only trying to distract from the failed Kim summit.
If there was anything Washington was really doing, it would be using Saudi Arabia as an intermediator. Probably in an attempt to build on the crown prince’s recent trip through Asia that led him to both Delhi and Islamabad, foreign minister Adel Al-Jubeir has been dispatched to meet with India’s and Pakistan’s leaders. The trip was initially designed to follow up on all the prospective business dealings Mohamed bin Salman had agreed to but has also turned into a diplomatic mission of sorts.
One wonders, though, whether such an initiative has any legs to stand on. Maybe the Pakistani side is more easily lured into engagement with a senior Saudi representative, as the Kingdom just promised massive investments in the country. But for Narendra Modi, to move beyond a welcome for Al-Jubeir and be seen to confer with a small geopolitical player such as the autocratic Saudis about the most critical aspect of Indian foreign policy, it could be a poisoned chalice for his domestic standing.
It might make perfect sense for Washington to have Saudi Arabia engage, however. Both are keen to see India weaned off its rapprochement with Iran to gradually weaken their declared regional adversary. The last-minute change in Al-Jubeir’s schedule to see Modi first was an apparent attempt to flatter India. Still, no, I think there would be nothing further from the usual courtesies. Delhi doesn’t need Riyadh to get involved in this difficult situation, neither on a stand-alone basis nor as a US agent.
This is not to say that Delhi would not want to take Washington’s call, but India might much rather fancy the input of the other two major stakeholders in an India-Pakistan normalisation, Russia and China. Beijing already has an envoy touring the region, and foreign minister Wang Yi invited his Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj to join him and Russia’s Sergey Lavrov for talks in Wuzhen last week. As a friend of both India and Pakistan, or so Wang diplomatically put it, China has urged restraint to avoid escalation.
Separately, the Kremlin hasn’t been sitting still. Vladimir Putin reportedly called Modi on Thursday, and Lavrov spoke to Islamabad the next day. In addition, the gathering in Wuzhen suggests that Beijing and Moscow are inclined to coordinate and potentially consult with each other on the tensions. Lavrov even suggested to the parties to support them in countering terrorism by making use of the mechanism of the regional anti-terrorist structure provided by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation SCO.
Such a proposal could not have been made without Beijing’s consent. What it demonstrates is that both are partners in this with similar objectives, and a more formalised way to fight terrorism in a region both are heavily invested in is certainly one. As I outlined some time ago last year, SCO is rapidly forming and expanding into what I called
NATO’s alter ego, and please be reminded that India and Pakistan were admitted as full members in 2017.
What we are witnessing here is no less than a major shift in geopolitical tectonic plates. Eurasia is building and getting stronger in dealing with hot spots like the one between India and Pakistan. Beijing and Moscow aligning themselves is likely to have added benefits in the context of the SCO project. Pakistan is keen on Eurasian integration, and India may be given further reasons to build on a more trustful relationship with China and ultimately become an incremental part of BRI.
