You will remember that I posted a piece on the Maldives when travelling there for new year’s eve. Believe me, I didn’t think I would re-address the country’s affairs so shortly thereafter. But things are happening on the atoll, and I deem them to be worth watching closely. As you might have heard, the former president and now exiled opposition leader Mohamed Nasheed is trying hard to storm back into front-line politics, and it appears he will use every means available to him to advance his objective.
What has deteriorated into a crisis by now started with the country’s supreme court to rule that Nasheed was cleared of terrorist charges that led to his conviction and ultimate asylum in the UK, and that he could run in the upcoming presidential elections later this year. The court also ordered the release of several jailed politicians and re-instated 12 parliamentary members, which resulted in a clear majority of the opposition party and the power to impeach the sitting president Abdulla Yameen.
Nasheed means business, and he is willing to go for the kill. Not only has he conspired with another previous president, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, and the chief justice Abdulla Saeed, who in fact was appointed by Nasheed in 2009, he has pleaded with Delhi that no less than the Indian military support his cause. To the international observers’ surprise, the Indian government didn’t know better but to wade right into the conflict, by taking a most unsolicited, intrusive, partisan and provocative approach.
In their press release, Delhi literally demanded a certain course of action by the Maldivian government with regards to its domestic politics. It went as far as to say it was imperative for the government to act in the court’s spirit. Interesting… This reminds of a regime change agenda rather than support for a small neighbouring country. Delhi is more likely to shoot itself in the foot than doing any good here. Maldives is a sovereign country and a UN member after all.
There should not be any doubt that Yameen is running the islands with an iron fist, and to be sure, he has been ruling under the shadow of political intrigue and allegations of corruption ever since he won a controversial election in 2013. But he is not the kind of ruler who will easily be intimidated and/or deposed by adversaries. Instead, Yameen has simply given Delhi the cold shoulder, declared a state of emergency, rejected the supreme court ruling and arrested Gayoom, Saeed, and the police commissioner.
The Indian government may have made a huge mistake in threatening the sitting Maldivian leadership and strengthened Yameen’s hand considerably. No question that the Indian military would be superior and could most easily change the domestic landscape by force, but the aggressive nature displayed has created massive misperceptions about Delhi’s motives, regionally and internationally. Nothing less than India’s reputation is on the line, with other Asian capitals are watching very carefully.
If it was Delhi’s intention to scare Yameen away and re-instate its ally Nasheed, it certainly backfired. Neither is Yameen going to walk away nor is Yameen’s big supporter China likely to let this happen. In contrast, Beijing’s official reaction to the conflict has been calm and constructive, along the lines of their confidence that the differences will be resolved through dialogue, that the Maldivian people have the wisdom and capability to cope independently, and that national and social stability will be restored quickly.
This should not be taken as a weak hand. China has huge interests in the island group by way of its maritime significance for BRI and has invested too much to let it go. In the end, the Maldivian conflict comes down to a fight between India and China, yet another by the way. Yameen is bending backward to cater to Beijing’s objectives, ports and all, in return for funds much needed in the islands’ infrastructure. Nasheed has been crying wolf and branded it as Chinese land grab, megaphoning Delhi’s concerns.
No easy and quick solution is in sight. While it all sounds like a domestic stand-off of an immature power-grabbing establishment that rather reminds of the nature of a banana republic, the opposing parties are mere proxies for a much bigger fight that goes beyond the significance of the politics of a few island atolls. The Maldives are a key piece to the geopolitical puzzle of the 21st century. They are a stone in an ancient Chinese Go game, strategically placed with the aim to surround more territory than the opponent.
The Chinese have meanwhile played a trump card of their own. Beijing has warned its citizens to travel to this assumed paradise, well knowing that they are cutting into the lifeline of the small economy that is massively dependent on tourism. Having been a fan ever since my visit there and subsequently taken the plunge buying the sovereign bonds on the basis of the country being a China play I have taken caution since the conflict broke over the weekend and disposed of the position first thing Monday morning.
