As if he hasn’t done enough… John Bolton may have been fired from the White House, but boy is he still actively meddling. As has been reported, Bolton let it be known on Israel’s Army Radio that, if any country in the Middle East should have reason to be worried about the outcome of the presidential election in November, it would be Israel. By his estimation, Israel may find itself caught between a rock and a hard place being faced with Donald Trump or Joe Biden as the next leader at the White House.
We should all be aware of the Democrats not exactly being delighted about Israel’s policies. A president Biden might also be inclined to renegotiate the Iranian nuclear deal, as a prerequisite for any form of diplomatic dialogue there and to win back the trans-Atlantic alliance with European partners, an abhorrent scenario in Tel Aviv. This together with China’s courting Tehran to become an incremental part of Belt and Road could trigger a dynamic leading to Iran’s full reintegration into the world economy.
As to be expected, Bolton has equally unflattering things to say about Trump winning. In his view, the president’s pulling out of the Iran deal was not so much a pro-Israeli move than him pandering to the domestic audience. To project himself as a special friend of Israel may have been a disguise and simply a means to an end, or so Bolton claims. It stands in stark contrast with other nations in the region. Just look at Saudi-Arabia that he has not been shy pushing around at will.
But despite his motives, as in being the probably most hawkish of the Iran hawks or taking revenge on the president who sent him packing after only so many months in office, maybe Bolton has a point. If I was Israel, I would be on guard in any case. Observers have claimed on numerous occasions that Trump would be unshackled were he to win a second term, no longer being obliged to anyone who lent their support to him and free to reign as he sees fit.
And admittedly, Trump does have a history of dropping counterparts like hot potatos. Bolton not only raises the awareness, he also offers Israel advice on how to deal with such a potential conundrum, unsolicited as it may be: “I think the next few months are an optimal time for Israel to act in its own national interest”, or so he put it. Of course, Israel is in no need of any such advice from the former US national security advisor. Speculation around the recent series of bomb explosions in Iran speaks for itself.
At the same time, it might be the worst period to provoke a larger scale confrontation, as much as Bolton is talking his own book and apparently eager to cause it. The closer we get to November, and through January’s inauguration, the more the Trump administration will become a lame duck with regards to major foreign policy actions. Being lured into a shoot-out with Iran isn’t a very likely option for Washington. Despite Trump’s erratic behaviour, it would smell too much of being a part of campaign activism.
Against such backdrop, the Iranian leadership must be happy to sit it out and wait for greener pastures. Momentum and China are on their side. Maybe this is the time for the Israeli government to themselves look for some form of rebalancing regarding the country’s alignments and geopolitical positioning, and it’s not that Israel and China don’t entertain constructive relations. A stronger dialogue with Beijing around what their plans are with Iran could be a good start.
