The military coup in Myanmar has caused quite a stir, and as the dust begins to settle, the geopolitical fallout becomes visible. To recap, America’s new government was super-quick to denounce the coup in the strongest possible terms, lambast the country’s military leaders, and threaten punitive sanctions against them. Shortly after the Capital riots has Washington reclaimed the moral high ground of human rights and is again trying to rally its so-called Western allies around the cause.
Some out of similar conviction, others grudgingly, supported the US position to condemn Myanmar affairs. Interestingly, and probably in the fitting spirit of the Quad concept, America’s new lapdog, India, joined the West in demanding that its neighbour must uphold the rule of law and democratic processes… Hmmm. By no means did or could this sound like an authentic comment out of Delhi. India was rather touting Washington’s horn and propagating stipulated messages.
Not least would India’s position have to be viewed through its Sinophobic lens. To be sure, after the overwhelming victory of Aung San Suu Kyi in November’s election Delhi would have delusionally anticipated a chance to disrupt the visible rapprochement between Myanmar and China and potentially even lure the neighbour into the Quad. The establishment’s ultimate objective has been to disrupt what Delhi is widely and audibly calling Beijing’s encirclement of India.
Fat chance… as much as Suu Kyi is the personification of democracy in Myanmar, she has been a most pragmatic leader who was eager to maintain good relations with China. After the West fell out with her over the Rohingya crisis, it was conducive to her economic agenda to turn to Beijing. Xi Jinping met with Suu Kyi seven times in the past 5 years. His last visit was 12 months ago. Myanmar formally joined the Belt and Road in 2017. And the concept of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor was agreed on a year later.
There is no doubt that Beijing is losing a primary ally here that its leadership invested a lot in. Unlike Suu Kyi who ostensibly refrained from voicing any views on sensitive issues for the Chinese, such as Taiwan or the South China Sea, the new potentate, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, is known to be wary of Chinese hegemony in the region. However, Beijing has been and will be treading most carefully with him not to risk its infrastructure plans and access to the Gulf of Bengal.
Since the new Washington has already shot itself in the foot and made an enemy of Min, this should not be hard to achieve. Essentially, China is the only power to rely on holding back with criticism of the coup and bringing economic goodies to the table during the proposed 12 months of military rule. The appointment of Wunna Maung Lwin as foreign minister is the first indication. He had previously served as top envoy until 2016, and he is known for his anti-Western stance and to be a lot more China-friendly.
There is another global player who may regain a standing of sorts, and that is Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin has emerged as a meaningful military partner for Myanmar. As the General pointed out at the recent visit of the Russian defence minister, Russia had always supported the country in difficult times. It almost sounds like the new regime is barricading the country from disturbing Western influence, such as persecution at the United Nations and a potential attempt at a colour revolution.
