What an interesting picture this is…! Joe Biden is predominantly occupied with appointing top cabinet members to the next US administration, and that doesn’t seem to be that simple a task considering that the easy ones for him have been made and others like defence appear to still be all over the place. An ostentatious unveiling of his “foreign policy and national team” end of last week should not blind us to the fact that, invisible to the mortals, there is probably some serious tug of war going on behind Democratic curtains.
Meanwhile, the incumbent Donald Trump is meant to concede his election loss, something he is likely not prepared to do, and lead the country in a custodial fashion until inauguration day, one that he might very well not attend as the sitting president, or so he let it be known. But Trump seems to have lost interest in governing. He is much rather spending his time on the golf course, bickering about the fraud he has been a victim of, and throwing spanners in the works of the coming Biden presidency.
As much has been visible by Trump’s quasi-non participation at major international events in the past two weeks. To be sure, Trump briefly attended the APEC and G20, but this was more a politically correct move of his office than anything else. In essence, the field was left wide open for the Chinese leadership to fill the apparent vacuum, and Xi Jinping did just that, quite impressively so. Beijing was probably still riding high on the success and momentum of the RCEP trade agreement.
Some observers even went as far as to say that Xi stole the show. He presented himself as the adult in the room, or rather on the screen, a responsible global leader who embraced the world with open arms and willing to create an environment that gives partners recovery opportunities. He called for a restoration of global supply chains by cutting tariffs and reducing trade barriers and raised some eyebrows proposing an international QR code system to enable cross border movement.
Of course, the China critics have eagerly characterised this as mere lip service, and it cannot be dismissed out of hand. While America remains in political transition, and in anticipation of a much more active Asia-Pacific pivot again once Biden is formally in power, Beijing is rushing to stake out the ground in a pre-emptive move. The Biden team is, after all, on the record of looking to form a united front with US allies around the world and particularly in Asia to up the ante on China.
Xi may have sent a warm note to Biden, expressing hope for cooperation and an ability to manage their differences, but the race in this strategic competition is full-on. Beijing was one of the last governments to congratulate, a full 3 weeks after the elections. China evidently wanted to wait and see how Trump’s contestation panned out. Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, hasn’t yet recognised Biden’s win, as he thought it didn’t matter because relations between Washington and Moscow were “already ruined”.
Not enough with the statesman-like posturing. Xi also, and to the surprise of many, said that China would consider joining CPTPP, the renegotiated version of TPP that was originally designed by the Obama administration to exclude China but had been left in limbo when Trump’s first act as president was to exit it in 2017. Biden has not committed to re-invigorate America’s role in TPP, and Xi’s proposal serves to neutralise if not counteract a potential US move, in a perfect game of chess.
China’s foreign minister Wang Yi’s trip to Japan and South Korea last week should be seen in a similar context. It is well-timed and an obvious testament that Beijing is keen to build on the RCEP foundations and intensify broader cooperation in East Asia. While there should be no doubt that both countries still count as American satellites, the Chinese leadership seems determined to start a more comprehensive process of to achieve more proximity among the economic heavyweights in the Asia-Pacific region.
In addition, the courting of Europe is ongoing and a trade deal with the EU actively pursued. Brussels, Paris, and Berlin may be filled with trans-Atlantic expectations awaiting the incoming Biden presidency, but it remains far from clear what Washington’s priorities will be in the midst of the pandemic and domestic economic malaise. Germany in particular, and despite the reserved China rhetoric, is eyeing the prize of an economically sound and healthy relationship with Beijing… certainly one to keep watching.
There are no doubts in Beijing’s circles that the Biden administration will try to hit the ground running from America’s current lame-duck phase, and that the world will be different again from the end of January. But China’s leadership is more than on the alert, leaving nothing to chance and moving forward in a most methodical way. The new Washington better prepare for a worthy strategic competitor. Unconventionally aggressive Trump has certainly done his bit to make Beijing sharper.
