I mentioned in yesterday’s post the Munich Security Conference where a variety of political bigwigs and foreign affairs experts meet annually. Over the years the German-sponsored MSC has been bringing together presidents, prime and foreign ministers including their entourages holding speeches and participating in panel and interview rounds. It has become one of the global forums to debate geopolitics among stakeholders in an unusually direct manner.
This year’s theme coined by organiser Wolfgang Ischinger was “westlessness”, for Europeans in particular to voice their grievances regarding America’s increasingly national and mercantilist tendencies and the visible disruption of the Western alliance. By the way, it was interesting to get a sense of what the West is meant to be these days. Naturally, the trans-Atlantic stakeholders are at the core. Japan was included, which seems fair. But countries like India also had the pleasure of being ensnared as a Western contingent.
The high-level American delegation, however, was undeterred. Vice president Mike Pence, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, secretary of state Mike Pompeo, and defence secretary Mark Esper all in their own rights ignored the concealed criticism and, before a majority of numb faces, insisted that America and that very West were winning, winning, and again, winning. Who were they winning against? Well, what is left but Russia, China, Islamic fundamentalism, all thrown into the same category more or less…
When the cameras zoomed in on the Yankees’ very audiences, it was like people staring in disbelief… why does it always have to be about winning with the Americans? One might appreciate the analogy to a probably more sports-crazed people than elsewhere as well as a loyal imitation of Donald Trump’s way to express himself. And it sure sounds good in the US-domestic media coverage these days, but come on…!
The world is not a football stadium, and we no longer live in the dark ages when tribes were busy killing, or shall we say win over, other tribes to safeguard their own existences and defy mortality. But that was 1,500 years ago, and have we learned nothing? To be sure, the world is resource-constrained, and the masses tend to respond to bias emotions and, as a friend put it very accurately last night, are happily resorting to nothing more basic than joy versus pain and winning versus losing.
All you achieve by banging that drum over and over, however, is that listeners digress and lose interest in what you have to say. People will eventually start asking the quintessential question – is it really true that the West is winning, or is this just a misguided attempt to a US marketing gag? So far, it appears Europeans are superficially going along with it, adhering to decade-long principles of trans-Atlanticism. But how long will that last, if the White House keeps yelling in their ears that they are winning when they are not.
The enforced loyalty has started to crack in any case. Take Huawei. Washington’s ever more belligerent risk assessment of backdoors and Chinese spying is already being challenged by European telecommunication companies. Show us the evidence, or so a few of their CEOs have dared to speak up. Some of the local media have even mocked the view as outright paranoia. The UK government has stubbornly resisted the US pressure and formally given Huawei a role in its network build-out.
While Washington is pulling out even bigger guns in an attempt to arrest the rise of Huawei, such as imposing further regulations to prevent the sale of any US components to China recently, the rest of Europe is equally inclined to turn a deaf ear to American warnings. Also, it doesn’t seem to have an effect on Huawei’s business and their shipment of telecom equipment, as it has transpired that the company is now in a position to manufacture 5G stations absent any US components.
The tables may be turning faster than one thinks. If American flagship semiconductor companies who have all commanded a large part of their business in Asia are blocked from selling to China, it will inevitably be to their disadvantage. Huawei has not been sitting back for the past year and let that White House avalanche break down on it. The company has developed rival products that compete head-on with American firms. Guess who would prevail when it came to a price war…
This kind of scenario will largely apply to other sectors. If Americans cannot sell their products, the Chinese will find a way to compensate for it. Washington’s influence may be far-reaching, but not everyone will be arm-twisted to dance to their tunes. The UK may unexpectedly turn out to be a good example. Maybe it is more important that China can build the high-speed railroad HS2 into the Midlands at the neck-breaking speed of only five years rather than sharing intelligence with the US.
So, one wonders who’s winning…?
