It would probably be a little melodramatic to claim that Friedrich Merz was the last hope for the CDU, European conservatism, and no less the country itself. But we are not far from it. Despite his absence from politics for the past 9 years, he was one of the most astute members of the Bundestag in the late 1990s and early 2000s. When he left, he made himself a prominent name in private business, as a lawyer and serving on the boards of numerous German and international companies. What a portfolio!
However, Merz’s dream of assuming the highest office in Germany is over. To ascend to the chair of the ruling CDU and succeed Angela Merkel would have been his running-board to the Berlin chancellorship. Instead, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Merkel’s confidante who had only months ago been elevated to the general secretary of the party and designated as Merkel’s favourite to succeed her, spectacularly won the second ballot at the party convention in Hamburg on Friday night, by the narrowest of margins.
Not to do wrong by AKK, as she is being called in the establishment circles because of her incredibly long and complicated name. She is a long-serving politician who has proven to win elections. But we have to be honest here. To become prime minister of the Saarland provides no cue to how the lady is going to consolidate the political landscape within her party and the country, and it is certainly no pedigree to withstand a much rougher terrain out there beyond Germany’s borders.
In short, the party played it safe, as Germans typically do, and chose continuity over renewal like some of the party grandees and Merkel loyalists put it with a righteous grin on their faces. Or you can put it in a different way – the 1,001 delegates simply didn’t have the guts to take their party to a new land. Think about it… continuity of what? To continue the disastrous Merkel course that has been responsible for strengthening the right-wing populist AfD party? To continue losing every other election that is to come?
Make no mistake about it. The real winner from this party convention is Angela Merkel. Unlike Merz who would have swiftly ended her chancellorship, called for new elections, and most probably entered a new coalition with the Green party under his leadership, AKK will not only keep the Merkel course, for which she has been nick-named Mini-Merkel, she will equally not endanger Merkel’s position and let her serve out her term until 2021. Good on you, Angela!
But there are no two ways about it. The party and Germany will probably lose out. The worst case scenario now is for the other half of the delegates to be sufficiently disgruntled and disillusioned that an attempt could be made to split the CDU in two. If the subsequent vote for the new general secretary was not an indicator already… The 33-year old Paul Ziemiak from the CDU’s youth organisation was meant to be a peace offer and unite the party. He didn’t even get 2/3 of the vote on Saturday.
As for Friedrich Merz, he proved in his concession speech to be an honourable loser who urged the delegates to support the new chairwoman but who also made no reference of staying on in any political functions. He genuinely tried to renew the CDU and bring it back on the path of being a behemoth of a people’s party. And I, like many others, strongly believe he would have been the most eligible leader, with the right stature, political conviction, international vision, and the professional experience to make it happen.
What a shame it is to lose such a talent that is so desperately needed to steer Germany through ever steeper challenges in Europe and the world, for the second time after 2009 mind you. His supporters have audibly been rumbling since the vote. You hear of many who intend to throw in the towel and leave the party. Others, even including AKK, have reportedly implored him to stay on in an official function and lend his weight within that old CDU. Some seem to suggest he should become a high-profile cabinet minister.
This is all wishful thinking, however, and it is outright ludicrous to think that he will serve in Merkel’s cabinet. Friedrich Merz wanted to change the CDU and will be sad not to be given his chance, but he also knows when to quit. He will most likely return to his portfolio of jobs in the private sector that is making him in excess of a million Euros a year – by the way something that would have been a key obstacle for him to win. Envy may be a capital sin, but in predominantly Christian Germany it remains a distinct feature.
You tell me why anyone should be bullish on Europe or believe in a strong Euro going forward, amid all the yellow vests in France, outright defiance of Brussels in Italy, and that so-called continuity in Germany?
P.S.: Please note Financial Times quoting from last Friday’s Expertise Asia
post in FT Weekend
article.
