Donald Trump will in all likelihood make personnel changes after the mid-term elections on November 6, no matter whether the Republicans can hold on to the House or not. If they lose it, Trump needs to make a statement of renewal in any case. If they win it, what better time to play his muscles and gear his cabinet even more to his liking. It is to be expected that there will be a few surprises. Trump wouldn’t be Trump if he didn’t want to see a few eyebrows raised.
The revolving door in this cabinet has always been spinning fast. But a start to a newly anticipated wave of job swaps was undoubtedly made with Nikki Haley’s resignation as US ambassador to the UN. The rumour mill has since been spinning out of control who would replace her. There was obviously the fun picks going around in the media, such as Kanye West who for some reason calls himself Ye now, has been an avid Trump supporter and gets rewarded to dine at the White House once in a while like this week.
Maybe he is being brought up to create some sort of counterweight to Taylor Swift, who swore never to make her political affiliation known but all of a sudden expresses distinct support for the two Democratic candidates for Senate in her home state Tennessee. But… ambassador Ye…? We must truly be kidding ourselves. Equally, for Ivanka Trump’s hat to be thrown into the ring is ludicrous. Even her father said this wasn’t likely, as he would be accused of nepotism. Well, what has he done so far absolving him…?
The Germans wouldn’t be so lucky as to see Richard Grenell, who has only been US ambassador to Berlin for 6 months but has managed to massively irritate the German establishment, to be considered. His heckling of corporate Germany on their US sanction compliance is in the eye of his White House beholder but at the same time has become objectionable in Berlin. Trump reportedly loves Grenell, no less for the similarly aggressive Twitter usage, but he doesn’t seem to be his top pick, and the Germans will likely have to endure him a while longer.
The most serious contender being mentioned is Dina Powell, who is part of the Goldman Sachs establishment and served as deputy national security advisor until earlier this year. She is clearly qualified, fits the bill of this administration to potentially favour a woman for the job, is of Egyptian descent, fluent in Arabic etc. Importantly, she is a confidante of Ivanka Trump. And, she is also the only Trump White House member who was previously part of George W Bush’s cabinet and well affiliated with mainstream Republicans.
Ok, but what is Nikki Haley going to do? She is in her mid-40s, commanding majority approval ratings, and in no way done with politics. Some pundits have speculated she will prepare for a presidential run in 2020, but that is almost certainly nonsense. Haley is a loyal member of the Trump troops, and there is no doubt that he himself will aim for a second term. So, that is out. But what she might be thinking of is 2024, and she will need to make a name for herself within the core of Washington’s ranks.
Hillary Clinton has already demonstrated how to do that. She served in the Senate and built her supporting network for 8 years before climbing into the ring and subsequently losing to Barak Obama however. Haley may well look at the same strategy, and her home state South Carolina could just deliver the optimal base. To be sure, Lindsey Graham is uncontested, but observing his recently remarkable bout of support for Trump culminating in his rant during Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearing makes you think.
Who knows…? Graham may well be off to new pastures himself. Rumours are circling that he could be the pick to replace Jeff Sessions as Attorney General. Sessions has long fallen from Trump’s graces, and it would not surprise if he fell victim during the next round of musical chairs. As much as Graham has been denying any ambition to swap his Senate seat, the castling may make good sense, as in rewarding Graham to become a Trump confidante at justice and Haley rejuvenating the Republican side of the aisle.
A Graham appointment might play into this equivocal encounter Trump had with Rod Rosenstein this week. As things stand, Rosenstein doesn’t seem to get fired despite his alleged indiscretion. Rosenstein’s departure would in all likelihood not upend the Mueller probe, and a replacement willing to shut it down could constitute obstruction of justice. But a new AG who won’t recuse himself of everything related to that probe like Sessions did could steer things in a much more constructive way for Trump.
One other person who has been poised for a White House comeback, even rumoured to succeed a heavyweight like chief-of-staff John Kelly, is former communication lady Hope Hicks. That will now be a while off, as she has just been planted into the Fox empire. At 29, time is on her side, and the Jared/Ivanka kingmaker duo will not forget her. Kelly, on the other hand, cannot allow himself to be lulled into a false sense of security. Neither can Jim Mattis. Too many controversies have emerged in recent months.
In any case, what’s to come should be nothing short of exciting.
