It appears the 2+2 talks between defence and foreign ministers of America and India in Delhi early September have not borne much fruit. Washington’s clear-cut intention has been to veer India away from its decades-old relationship with Russia, instrumentalise the sub-continent as part of the Indo-Pacific alliance to contain China, and to lock Delhi into an alliance that would promote America’s business of exporting weapons and energy, embedded in a security arrangement that grants Washington military oversight provisions.
Apart from courteous engagement and a few smiles for the global media Washington doesn’t seem to have progressed on either. On the contrary, Vladimir Putin has meanwhile been Narendra Modi’s guest of honour commemorating Russian-Indian friendship, striking numerous defence and energy agreements, and signing off on Delhi’s purchase of Russian S-400 antimissile systems, a particular thorn in Washington’s side – in a literal doubling down on Moscow at a time when Putin is being demonised in the West.
Militarily, of course, the S-400 system is a no-brainer if not a must-have for India. Firstly, there is reportedly no other system on the market that meets the requirements for a long-range surface-to-air defence to counter a perceived threat from China across the Himalayas. And secondly, Russia sold the same system to Beijing, meaning whatever strategic advantage had been bestowed on China is being offset by this very transaction, at least concerning the South Asian sphere.
The deal as such has dispelled concerns that India might succumb to pressure from Washington and to distance itself from its partnership with Moscow, despite an apparent threat that US sanctions are to be slapped on anyone importing weaponry from Russia. Also, and in another demonstration of outright defiance of Donald Trump’s sanction regime, Indian state-run oil companies have just placed orders for Iranian crude to be delivered in November – post the US-imposed November 4 deadline.
To be sure, the government has repeatedly requested sanction waivers for Indian oil imports from Iran, and maybe Delhi has gotten an unofficial nod, but according to the latest reporting Washington had not granted any so far. The question also arises why on earth Trump would offer a waiver to Modi only days after signing the S-400 deal. In any case, a total of 1.25 million tonnes of crude is to be shipped next month, and the mechanism of advance orders indicates that India will not zero out its crude intake from Iran.
All these actions are to be seen as nothing short of game changers with regards to Delhi newly defining the rules of engagement with Moscow, Washington, and Beijing. Modi is unambiguously demonstrating that he places India’s self-interest above all other considerations and is willing to take the inherent risks to amplify India’s rise. He might have taken a cue from Donald Trump himself. Everything points to a Modi-induced foreign policy version of India First.
That is not to say that Washington cannot play a role, and the preliminary signing of America’s CAATSA agreement is testifying to it. But if the Trump administration thinks it can squeeze Delhi to play their game, they are likely to be mistaken. Inter-operability of militaries goes both ways. CAATSA, as viewed by India, is rather to be guaranteed access to critical defence technology and communication networks that are designed to further the India First agenda, and still keep Washington at arms’ length.
Taking those risks against the background of geopolitical events may very well be warranted, or so Modi might think. By the time early November comes the world could be a different place altogether. We will have had the US mid-terms. God knows what’s going to happen in the Middle East. Trump’s sanction regime against Russia and Iran is already scattered with holes. In the meantime, the world on this side of the globe is moving on. It feels like no one has the time and patience for these US-imposed knick-knacks.
