Turkey’s president Erdogan knows a thing or two about absolute power, particularly after his recent re-election. No other leader appears to be too strong to stand up to, certainly not any of the Europeans and not even Donald Trump. He had already proven to be his own man before, but the coup attempt on him 2 years ago finally broke the camel’s back with regards to his unreserved allegiance to Washington and NATO.
What has since followed have been a more than visible rapprochement with Vladimir Putin, numerous public stand-offs with fellow NATO members, snubs for the EU, an independent engagement in Northern Syria, purchases of Russian defense systems in defiance of US offers, and some curious fondling with Iran. No threats, implicit and explicit, seem to make a lasting impression on Erdogan. He must consider himself to be something of a supreme leader now.
Good on him. He is certainly not backing down. Not even now it appears that Trump has openly on Twitter extended an ultimatum to Turkey over the imprisonment of an American evangelical pastor implicated to have been involved in the 2016 coup attempt. Consequences in the form of unprecedented sanctions against two Turkish government ministers have already commenced overnight. It is to be understood that Trump has a strong political interest in freeing a member of his core constituency.
But it is the way how one goes about it that makes the difference. Erdogan may have speculated that he can extract an exchange between the pastor and Pennsylvania-based arch foe Fethullah Gulen who is suspected of having masterminded the coup. So far, Washington has been stonewalling the effort, and Trump’s demands and sanctions are bringing the situation to an uncomfortable impasse. Releasing the pastor in exchange for nothing would mean a loss of face for Erdogan.
After all, Erdogan considers himself a strongman as much as Trump does. Shrugging the menace off is one thing, but one never knows what Trump will do next. As Turkey’s leader isn’t in the business of relenting, he has instead just upped the ante. At the BRICS summit in South Africa last weekend, where Ankara was invited to attend as a guest, Erdogan mused that a T should be added to the BRICS acronym, a suggestion readily welcomed by the 5 countries.
Such musing is not only Brinkmanship in its best form, it is also a testament of Erdogan’s frustration with the Western structures, be it NATO, the EU, or his strained relations with Washington. His long-standing dream of joining the EU has been in limbo for a while now, and his antagonism against America has stemmed from Washington’s continued support for the Kurds, which is by most Turks seen as a direct threat to the country. So his populist character has naturally turned him against the West.
BRICS+T would serve his purpose of rubbing it in further. Besides, there is more to be gotten out of the likes of Russia and China than to kowtow to the current so-called allies. Opportunistically schmoozing with Putin is one thing however, to counter Washington’s firm directives is another. Also last week, Erdogan outright rejected to cut back Turkey’s oil imports from Iran. If the Chinese can face up to the Americans, so can I… or so his thinking must be.
Trust deficit or not, Erdogan is walking a fine line. It is not to be excluded that this might culminate in a big bang with Washington. His economy is fragile, the currency tested 5 against the dollar overnight and is possibly on the brink of collapse. Quite a few fires to put out if push came to shove…
