It has been known that Russia will be holding the largest military exercises since the fall of the Soviet Union at the end of August/ early September. According to defense minister Sergei Shoigu the so-called Vostok-18 drill will be unprecedented in scale, troops and forces involved, and the largest preparatory action for Russian armed forces since Zapad-81 almost 40 years ago. It is even expected that Vladimir Putin will show up to inspect the progress of the war games.
What hasn’t really been known until now is that China has been invited and will participate. It may not mean all that much in relative terms, but Beijing is sending about 3,200 troops and all kind of war material to the Siberian region. Now, that is the real unprecedented event! The show of Sino-Russian united force is the exact opposite of the days when the once sworn communist rivals experienced a stand-off in 1969 that could easily have triggered a nuclear war.
To be sure, the two powers had already conducted common military exercises in the past, such as the navy drills in the South China Sea and in the Baltics last year. However, nothing of this scale has ever been imaginable. The Chinese foreign ministry was quick to point out that the actions are not targeted at any third party, but it didn’t hold back to emphasise that all this is aimed at consolidating and developing the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership, to jointly deal with security threats.
Well… no kidding! This is yet another piece in the jigsaw puzzle that has been forming since Washington started to impose sanctions on Russia and in an incredible geopolitical mistake drove Moscow into Beijing’s arms. As I laid out in a
piece recently, it was the elder statesman and sage Kissinger who advised Trump to instead go about restoring relations with Russia to pivot against the rapidly rising Middle Kingdom, as much as that doesn’t fit the zeitgeist among the political establishment in America.
It is no coincidence then that this announcement comes on the eve of the largest ever war games held by NATO in Latvia, the small Baltic country bordering directly on Russia. This exercise is the latest of recent military drills conducted across Eastern Europe. As recently as in June, more than 18,000 soldiers from 19 of the 29 NATO member countries participated in the so-called Saber Strike operation in Poland. None of this would be aimed at Russia, or so the inauthentic official commentary from NATO goes.
The NATO encircling of Russia’s West has long been pursued, whatever language out of Brussels is being applied. The Kremlin has repeatedly warned NATO of provoking a serious conflict. Putin himself cautioned the alliance of admitting the Ukraine and Georgia, something that reportedly was discussed at the latest NATO summit in July. NATO’s militarisation of former Soviet satellite states is very apparently being viewed as an existential threat by Moscow.
Russia entering Georgian breakaway regions and annexing Crimea will have to be seen in that context. While some ambitious politicians there are keen on their countries formally becoming NATO members, there are alliance rules that prohibit jurisdictions with territorial conflicts from joining. In any case, the Chinese-Russian partnership is truly on the verge of becoming not just strategic but also comprehensive, as it is already being called as such.
Any Kissinger-inspired attempt to lure one side over within this constellation of 3 superpowers may well be in vain and too late. Always remember, geopolitics is very similar to the games of Chess and Go, and the Russian are good at one and the Chinese good at the other.
