Powerful words seem to be America’s biggest assets these days. And so, Donald Trump dished many of them out in his speech on US national security strategy Monday night. On the face of it, it was certainly more forceful than anything any other president since Ronald Reagan delivered to the American public and the world. But in the end, it sounded like a desperate attempt to reverse America’s geopolitical decline and a warning to the world.
True to his campaign slogan, and in contrast to the previous presidencies for that matter, Washington’s objectives will reportedly oscillate around American economy and homeland, and advancing American interests and influence in the world. The first two have been obvious for a while. What this means with regards to interests can only be interpreted as a proposal for an edgy activism exactly where traditional US’ interests are under threat.
In this wake, and unsurprisingly, the countries most censored were Russia and China. They are the core of the first group of targets. According to the proposal, Russia and China are seeking to create a new global order, both militarily and economically, that Washington believes will be hurting or hampering US interests. Last minute, Trump just stopped short of labeling China a strategic competitor. What does that even mean…?
Why contemplate something like this in the first place, as that much is obvious anyway, no? And… what’s he going to do about China? Start the mother of all trade wars that will be most damaging to either party? Slam punitive tariffs on Chinese goods and services? Stop Chinese investments? All measures that will eventually hurt America more than the Middle Kingdom. The America-first battle cry alone isn’t going to cut it.
To be fair, the term tariff has duly been suppressed in the proposal. Neither are things such as currency manipulation part of it. What the report rather takes aim at however is the industrial policy of China and other Asian nations that subsidised their industries, forced technology transfers and distorted markets. These and other actions have undoubtedly challenged America’s economic security to the core. But hey… what to do about it?
Subsidised capital has driven high-tech manufacturing out of America for the past decades. A comprehensive transformation of regulatory, education and tax policies are to restore a commanding position in research and development and bring high-tech production back. There, the report states the obvious. National security relies on keeping defence-critical industries onshore. However, voicing those objectives in one thing, achieving them another.
There is also the idea of engaging industrialised democracies and other like-minded states to defend against China’s so-called economic aggression. But what is that supposed to mean? Engaging Europe and Japan to counter-balance Beijing’s weight? Trump seems to be forgetting that China’s unprecedented economic expansion will be to the advantage of many in the world, including those nations he is implicitly referring to.
Where Washington won’t lead, others will, most notably Beijing. We have just witnessed the demise of TPP, one of the last bastions of potential American leadership in Asia Pacific. What an opportunity forgone to marry the military pivot in the region with economic and trade interests. And now, to cover the holes and retain a chance to contain China the Indo-Pacific initiative has half-heartedly been called for to replace TPP. It will not work.
On the contrary, the Chinese model is already being deemed superior and exported to South East Asia, Central Asia and as far away places such as Africa. It is increasingly the case that leaders want to adopt the system, become a Chinese economic satellite, and benefit from China’s preeminence rather than oppose it. The Road and Belt Initiative will cause waves of commercial benefits across the entire Eurasian plate and spill into Europe.
What is Beijing to think of such US rhetoric? On one hand, the Trump administration wants to cooperate with China wherever it suits, such as the North Korean conflict. On the other, it accuses China to be a strategic competitor that doesn’t play fair. So, Trump wants to pick out the raisins from the cake and have the best of all worlds. Well, nice thinking, Mister President, but it unfortunately doesn’t work like that anymore, if it ever has.
He is also trying to apply the carrot and stick game with Moscow. The document takes a tough line on Russia accusing the country of undermining the legitimacy of democracies. In Trump’s speech, Russia is talked about as a rival but also described as a potential partner. He did point out that Vladimir Putin called him the day before to express his gratitude for information the CIA shared to thwart an alleged terror attack planned in Saint Petersburg.
This passage was probably one of the smarter moves. The two leaders have reportedly spoken a couple of times recently, much to the chagrin of Washington’s establishment, but it is an attempt to reach out to Putin, cultivate a relationship of sorts and prevent Russia from entirely being driven into Beijing’s arms. It might be a little late for that now. China is the bigger opponent, and as I claimed in this space before,
Trump will need Putin more.
The presentation of the new agenda was professional no doubt, but one cannot get rid of the feeling that there were too many us-against-them, its-so-unfair, me-me-me, and generally quite some whining kind of gestures. What is one to do with this, particularly when you are the Beijing leadership preoccupied with the existential advancement of your own country and people, or the Kremlin being beaten by sanctions slapped on them from that very corner?
