At least it looks like it may finally be thumbs down for Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president since 2014. The political strongman, and an oligarch of sorts himself, could have found his match. But we aren’t talking about Yulia Tymoshenko, the former on-and-off prime minister through 2010, who had become the personification of the Orange Revolution, lost the office to Russia-loyalist Viktor Yanukonich and been released from prison in 2014.
No, we are talking about no other than Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president of Georgia. Saakashvili was Georgia’s president for two consecutive terms through 2013, leading the so-called Rose Revolution in the country post Eduard Shevardnadze’s resignation. But Georgia…? Why would the former Georgian president challenge the Ukrainian president for the leadership in his country?
As you might have followed past events, Saakashvili left Georgia right after his second term ran out and has since been wanted for abuse of power charges there. He set up shop in Ukraine, where he obtained citizenship and Poroshenko himself anointed him governor of the Odessa region, which many of us observers found strange to begin with. After a fall-out in 2016 he lost his post, and his citizenship was revoked in July.
Saakashvili was forced to remain outside the country for many months. But now get this… As has been reported, he literally forced his way back crossing the border from Poland last week, without a passport and initially being denied entry at two border posts. He finally set foot on Ukrainian soil at the third attempt backed up by hundreds of rallying supporters. Well, exactly… you can’t make this stuff up.
He has since toured the country denouncing the current regime as corrupt and Ukraine as being in the worst state ever known. Overnight, he rallied a crowd in front of the presidential office in Kiev demanding the elite must change, or else. His intrusion is well timed. While Poroshenko is in New York delivering his address to the United Nation’s General Assembly later today, Saakashvili is undermining him at home.
He will allegedly also get his passport back, i.e. he could run for parliament or even for the presidency. The election is scheduled in 2019, but one can never tell what earlier changes this turn of events could bring. In any case, Saakashvili has vowed to go all the way to challenge Ukraine’s corrupt government. It is almost funny how a former Georgian president all of a sudden plays the role of avenger of Ukraine’s dispossessed.
All this indicates that power is slipping from Poroshenko’s hands. The professor friend pointed me to the fact that, perhaps not so coincidentally, Saakashvili spent time in the US and Germany before his return to Ukraine. To try to backstab Poroshenko who granted him refuge from extradition-seeking Georgia is one thing, but it is highly unlikely that this happens without at least a wink or a nod from Washington and Berlin.
Poroshenko is obviously a pro-Western politician too, but disappointment with his record is without a doubt growing in the West. According to Ernst & Young Ukraine tops the global corruption rankings. America and Europe both know well that, in order to detach the country further from the previous Soviet bloc and make it part of the Western universe, Ukraine needs to push reforms and a shot into the proverbial economic arm.
According to the professor, none of these Saakashvili stunts could have been possible without other oligarchs who would have withdrawn their support from Poroshenko. It is them who provide the funds and protection for the man from Georgia, as well as organise speeches and rallying crowds. There should be no doubt that Saakashvili would have been arrested right there at the border, had he not had the backing of other oligarchs and the West.
In the least, or in the short-run, he could be used as a tool to apply pressure on Poroshenko. Longer term however, Saakashvili might even be the chosen man to replace him, as incredible as this looks from the outset. He apparently knows how to ride the wave of popular discontent. He has the credentials of having performed a successful colour revolution. He also knows how to deal with oligarch power players.
Most importantly, he would guarantee that Kiev continues to dance to the tunes of Washington and Brussels. When it comes to the future stability of the Ukraine and its place between Russia and the West, the knives have always been out for Vladimir Putin. However, one is equally left to wonder how much more of an influence the West is prepared to exert on this country and its leadership, applying ever more bizarre strategies.
