He may still need Putin more

Public praise was duly given to Donald Trump when he speedily managed the replacement of his national security advisor. Herbert Raymond McMaster comes with all the desired credentials. Hardly any critical voices have been heard from either side of the aisle. What does have to be pointed out, and that may be a reason for the smooth transition, is that McMaster is believed to be much less Russia-friendly than his predecessor.

Has Trump finally given in to the Deep State that is so suspicious about his Russia rhetoric, and deviated from his schmoozing course with Vladimir Putin? We will have to see, but it would be fair to say that he has generally lost a bit of standing and credibility on foreign affairs, including Flynn, and Mattis and Tillerson seemingly talking their own book in conversations with Asian and European counterparts.

Trump’s strategy, if you want to call it that, or instinct, was nicely set out, namely to tear that growing bond between China and Russia apart before it is too late. While Tillerson hammered China’s island building in his confirmation hearing, to the extent that it was just shy of an outright declaration of war, Trump continued to court the Russian leadership. This is not stupid behaviour, it is called divide-and-rule that only Uncle Sam can really afford.

The new Trump administration has been both threatening and kissing for a good reason. The objective is to right the US’ geopolitical blunders that literally drove Moscow into Beijing’s hands. It requires to disrupt the result of that failed policy, that is the progressing formation of Eurasia and the ongoing harmonisation among relevant nations, but fore-mostly the blossoming relationship between Russia and China.

As pointed out in Expertise Asia’s January post (He will need Putin more), the two clear winners of such a strategy should naturally be Shinzo Abe, and in fact Vladimir Putin. Abe managed to position himself with Donald Trump early on, as the man in Asia to be backed by everything America has to offer. Japan’s position as the US’ unsinkable aircraft carrier and the bulwark against China has been impressively reconfirmed.

It may not necessarily look like it right now, but the other winner is Putin. Sanctions may have hurt a little, but that is pretty much a story of the past. If you look at the numbers, Russia is not suffering that much economically, let alone imploding as pundits predicted. Industrial output has been growing for most the past 12 months, real wages are bouncing, the Ruble is almost too strong hence inflation collapsing to 5%, and reserves have been rebuilt.

But much more importantly, those very Western sanctions inadvertently gave him access to China, a much bigger future market for his immense resource pool than Europe. Obama’s neglect also opened the door for him to become the dominant player in the Middle East. He has lured NATO-heavyweight Turkey into his web, controlled Iran, cozied up to Pakistan and had Japan on a string over the Kuril Isles.

And as I said last month, now Trump will have to make a deal, because as incredible as it sounds, the Eurasian dynamic prescribes that he almost needs Putin more than Putin needs him. To contain China’s rise, not just as an economic behemoth but also as the hegemon on the Eurasian plate and a potential military challenger, Trump needs Putin to re-create a balance of power and a counterweight to Beijing that is more imperative than ever.

If the home base only let him… the Washington establishment is still in cold war mood and shell-shocked by Russia’s taking of Crimea, a reaction to the Western meddling in Kiev. It was foolish to think that Moscow would let the West snatch away Sevastopol, Russia’s crucial navy port in the Back Sea. It will be a difficult endeavour to untangle this mess, now that the milk is spilled, but somehow this needs to be resolved.

Putin may not exactly be sitting all too pretty, but he has got options. Either Trump manages to come his way, against all the domestic odds, and surely opportunism will rule in Moscow to straighten that relationship out, or Putin will continue to tinker with Russia’s leading role in Eurasia. Whether the mainstream media reports it or not, he is still the man in charge of that chessboard for now.